The Future of Grain: Canada's Prospects for Grains, Oilseeds and Related Industries

Richard Stubbs was a professor at St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, N.S.

Despite the continued significance of the agricultural industry to the health of the Canadian economy, relatively few serious analyses of this important sector have been published in recent years. This short monograph, the authors of which are with the departments of rural economy and economics at the University of Alberta, is, therefore, most welcome. Those who know of the Veemans’ previous work will not be surprised that this study is not only informative but also clearly laid out and persuasively argued. They explore the grain industry from a number of different angles. The reader is treated to a review of various facets of Canadian grain production and the uncertainties of the international markets. The authors then tackle their central theme, which concerns the future expansion of Canada’s grain production. Is the Canadian Wheat Board’s goal of increasing exports from the 1982-83 level of 28 million tonnes to a projected 1990 level of 36 million tonnes feasible? What are the consequences of such an expansion for the industries that are tied to grain production?

On the whole the authors are cautiously optimistic. They expect moderate growth in the next decade, with the Wheat Board’s targets as “realistic upper-range goals” which “provide a useful base for current planning purposes” (p. 119). Some might feel that the authors have under-emphasized the minefield of the international market, especially the key role played by the Soviet Union, while others might echo the conclusions of the recent Senate report and question whether modern farming practices are likely in the long term to limit possible increases in production. Yet even such critics will be bound to recognise that the authors’ analysis and conclusions are eminently reasonable. Moreover, this is a study that can be profitably read by interested laymen as well as by experts.