The Predictability of Criminal Behaviour

Description

119 pages
$25.00
ISBN 0-8020-5691-1

Author

Year

1986

Contributor

Reviewed by Joan McGrath

Joan McGrath is a Toronto Board of Education library consultant.

Review

A very small number of hard-core criminals are responsible for a disproportionate amount of crime. The present work is concerned with attempts to identify such offenders as early in their careers as possible. If such persons could be identified by an objective set of criteria, such criteria could aid in the development of both retributive and utilitarian goals, and might “maximize the likelihood of making an appropriate decision and enhance the credibility of the criminal justice system.”

Various individual factors in prediction of recidivism are examined in great depth: the sex of the offender (men are far more likely to engage in criminal activity, and the imbalance increases with the increased gravity of criminal conduct); race and ethnicity (to engage in open discussion of this sensitive subject is described as “entering a minefield”); age (the early onset of a delinquent career portends a longer and possibly more serious adult criminal career); personality and intelligence; socio-economic status (oddly, the grievances of the working class are most profound when their objective standards of living are on an upswing); criminal history (prior record); institutional adjustment (the effects of differing lengths, types and degrees of confinement on different personalities and age groups); drug and alcohol abuse.

The environmental context of family, peers, and situation are discussed. Various statistical methods of prediction of recidivism may assist parole boards in their decision making. The conclusion enumerates and gives warning of the limitations inherent in practical use of the statistical method of prediction (e.g., “The more unlikely an event, the less likely we are to predict its occurrence, all other things being equal”). This book includes a very extensive bibliography, and author and subject indexes.

Citation

Gabor, Thomas, “The Predictability of Criminal Behaviour,” Canadian Book Review Annual Online, accessed March 29, 2024, https://cbra.library.utoronto.ca/items/show/35341.