Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities

Jane M. Wilson is a Toronto-based chartered financial analyst.

Daily news is full of opinion polls, lotteries, medical experiments,
statistical trends, and natural and man-made disasters, and we all
consciously or unconsciously base decisions on perceived probabilities
of future events. Sometimes these decisions, be they about life or a
poker hand, are not very logical. Statistics professor Rosenthal writes
in an entertaining way about how we think, and how we might think
differently if we considered more carefully the true odds in any given
situation. His goal is to give readers a better perspective on
probabilities so as to “have fun ... avoid fear [and] make better
decisions.”

This book on luck, chance, and probability in life can be digested
without benefit of advanced education; its only difficult equation is a
decorative one etched onto the hard cover. However, the author, a
mathematician, has difficulty identifying his readership. Some parts,
such as the Monty Hall problem and the debate between “Bayesian” and
“frequentist” statisticians, are clearly directed at adults with a
curiosity about science. Other sections are irritatingly chatty, with
some unnecessary digression. Just in case a reader’s mind wanders, the
book has a fascinating section on how quantum mechanics redefines our
very existence as an ephemeral probability.

Struck by Lightning capitalizes on the current popularity of books on
risk. It is probably the least demanding, but most readers will come
away with something learned.