The Economic Consequences of Quebec Sovereignty

J.L. Granatstein is a history professor at York University and author of
War and Peacekeeping and For Better or For Worse.

The Canadian crisis continues in an atmosphere of public boredom and
official misinformation. Nowhere is the misinformation more prevalent
than in Quebec, where, thanks to the studies produced by the
Bélanger-Campeau Commission, much of the public has been gulled into
believing that independence would be relatively painless in political
and economic terms. It was not surprising that the sovereignist Quebec
media allowed those studies to be taken as proof. But they also escaped
analysis in English Canada, until Grady’s little book appeared—and
the result largely blows them out of the water. All the studies take an
optimistic approach, all assume economic rationality will prevail in
Canada (thus neglecting the anger that will predominate), and all assume
that the long-range costs of independence will be minimal. All, as Grady
demonstrates quite well in his demolition derby, are largely incorrect.
Not that Grady is threatening anyone; in fact, he sees real output in
Quebec falling by only 5-10 percent, leaving Quebec still one of the
better-off societies on earth. But there is no doubt in his analysis
that Quebec would suffer more than Canada. This is an important study.