Anatomy of a Liberal Victory: Making Sense of the Vote in the 2000 Canadian Election

Eric P. Mintz is an associate professor of political science and
environmental studies at Sir Wilfred Grenfell College, Memorial
University of Newfoundland.

Based on three major national surveys, this study examines voter choice
and the factors affecting the outcome of the 2000 Canadian election. The
Liberals enjoyed particularly strong support (outside Quebec) from
Catholics and those of non-European origin, while Alliance support was
concentrated among Western, Protestant, rural males. Ideological
divisions concerning attitudes toward free enterprise as well as moral
attitudes (and, in Quebec, views on sovereignty) played a major role in
explaining voter choice. Although only about half of the electorate had
strong ties to a particular party, the strong Liberal lead in
partisanship (outside Quebec) was a key factor in explaining the outcome
of the election. Evaluations of the party leaders were also a major
factor in affecting voter choice, but this did not have much of an
effect on the election outcome, as the ratings of the five leaders were
quite similar. Improvement in the Canadian economy did not have a
significant effect in increasing support for the governing Liberal
party. Hotly contested issues such as health care had only a small
effect independent of general ideological orientations. Negative
evaluations of the government’s performance on key topics likely
prevented the Liberals from having a landslide victory. Strategic voting
had only a slight effect in reducing support for the NDP and PC parties.

The researchers also found that the decline in voter turnout was due
almost entirely to the low level of participation by young people,
particularly those without a university degree. This is not simply a
“life-cycle” effect or an effect specific to the 2000 election, but
rather reflects the low level of political interest and knowledge of the
younger generation. Troubling as well for the quality of Canadian
democracy is the conclusion of the authors that party politics is likely
to remain uncompetitive at the national level.

Professors André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau, and Neil
Nevitte have done an excellent job not only in designing and analyzing
the 2000 Canadian Election Study, but also in discussing their results
in a clear and straightforward manner. Their findings will likely be of
continuing importance for understanding Canadian politics.